What is Comic Book Speculation?

You may have heard people talking about it in your local comic book shop, and now you’re wondering: “What is comic book speculation?”

Speculation simply means buying something now that you expect will appreciate in value later. People do it all the time with stocks, real estate, trading cards and even sneakers. The trick is to buy low and sell high, but how do you know what will go up in value? The truth is you don’t. You may lose as often as you win in this game.

But no risk means no reward, and big risk can mean big reward.

Thankfully, there are aspects of speculation that you can learn, and just like anything else, the more you learn the better you’ll become. And we’ve got a few tips here to get you started off on the right foot.

Watch for key issues

Technically, a book can be a “key issue” for lots of reasons (iconic cover, limited run, etc.), but for our purposes here, we’re talking about the events of the story. Major key issues can be the first appearance of a character, a new costume, a character’s death or any major event in the character’s storyline.

The best place to look is in the back issues bin. Those old books can cost a lot, but that’s because they are worth a lot. Many books from the 1960s-70s are always in demand, and some can even sell for six figures. If you can find a good price there, you flip for a good profit.

While rarer, there are some modern books that sell just as well. The first appearance of Miles Morales (Ultimate Fallout #4 in 2011) and the first appearance of Harley Quinn (Batman Adventures #12 in 1993) can sell for thousands!

Follow the news

Keep an eye on entertainment industry news to know what’s coming up as soon as possible. Especially watch Hollywood for announcements about upcoming movies and TV shows, because low-value first appearances in comics can really shoot up in value after appearing on screen.

Take for example Superman (vol. 2) #4 — the first appearance of Bloodsport. This was pretty cheap and easy to find until the 2021 film THE SUICIDE SQUAD introduced Bloodsport on screen, played by Idris Elba. The book quickly went up to $200 for a CGC-graded example. A similar thing also happened to Superboy (vol. 3) #9 — the first full appearance of King Shark, who also appeared in the film.

If you had been following the news when these characters were announced for the film, you probably could have bought those books for a lot cheaper and (if you sold them) made a larger profit in return.

Follow the trends

Who are the hottest comic book creators right now? What are the hottest titles? What are people talking about?

As of this writing, variant covers from artists like J. Scott Campbell, Sokomaika and Artgerm are extremely popular. They sell out fast and quickly appear on the marketplace for hundreds of dollars.

Speculation is all about getting it early and getting it cheap.

Gimmicks: hot or not?

Gimmicks are anything the publisher does to make a book seem more desirable. In the 90s, there were all kinds of crazy gimmick comic books with hologram covers, die-cut covers, embossed covers — even colorforms for covers! They were called “collector’s editions” and publishers flooded the shelves with them.

If you know anything about supply and demand, you’ll see the problem. A “collector’s edition” suggests something is rare or special, but if everyone has 3 copies it’s neither rare nor special. And while they are still lots of fun, very few of those books held their value over the years.

Today, there are new gimmicks, like virgin variants (no logos on the cover) and retailer incentive covers (called “ratio variants” because they offer a limited supply to retailers based on order quantities). The very first “variant cover” was Man of Steel #1 by DC Comics in 1986, and now 30-some-years later it’s not uncommon for any book to have three or more variants on every issue.

Rather than flooding the market with the same product as they did in the 90s, this creates more scarcity in the market by offering a comic in smaller varieties. Standard covers are pretty easy to find, usually, but variants can be tricky. Some can be very tricky because they are intentionally limited by the publisher to create demand.

Right now, there are modern books selling for big bucks.

Take for example Strange #1, virgin variant 1:500 ratio with cover by J. Scott Campbell. Months before it was released there were already eBay pre-orders for $500 or more.

Buy buyer beware: Is the market headed for another gimmick bust? Can you get in and out before it does?

Buy it raw and sell it graded

Ungraded books (called “raw”) are often much more affordable than graded books. This offers an excellent opportunity for collectors to buy books for their raw value and pay to have them graded by CGC.

But be careful: If you pay more for the books (purchase, grading, shipping, etc.) than it would be worth graded you might take a loss. Make sure you have a good cushion to work with and feel confident that the book will maintain its value long enough to flip it.

Take for example Star Wars #42 — recognized by collectors as the first appearance of Boba Fett. This book recently sold, raw, in great condition for about $500 on eBay. If it was sent off to CGC and came back with a CGC 9.8 grade, the book would be worth about $3,000. There are currently two popular ongoing Disney+ series related to the character and no sign that the Star Wars universe will be losing interest anytime soon. This is a fairly safe investment if you can find a buyer.

Which brings us to…

Over-saturation

You want to make money flipping comics? So does everybody else, and there are a lot of sellers out there right now. The comics industry hasn’t been this hot in decades, and CGC Comics is grading hundreds-of-thousands of books each year.

Be careful what you buy if your plan is to sell it later. Not only is there no guarantee that books will hold their value, there’s also a lot of competition. Buyers have lots of choices right now, and that can make it difficult for your book to get attention. It can even drive down your selling price.

Make sure your item stands out, and that you’re offering something other sellers can’t.